Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2555 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2555 DTW 07:05 → MCO 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 337 DTW 14:00 → MCO 16:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2555 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	MCO 09:40	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	MCO 11:23	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	11%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:23	MCO 15:01	13%	4%	0.8%	63%
F9 3364 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:54	MCO 21:41	15%	6%	1.0%	72%
DL 1274 Delta	DTW 18:37	MCO 21:13	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	17%	6%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON