Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1725 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1725 DTW 08:42 → MDW 08:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3412 DTW 19:04 → MDW 19:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1725 Southwest	DTW 08:42	MDW 08:57	9%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 1359 Southwest	DTW 12:55	MDW 13:10	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3412 Southwest	DTW 19:04	MDW 19:20	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:25	MDW 12:46	18%	8%	1.2%	82%
DL 4684 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:50	MDW 09:14	26%	3%	0.0%	74%
DL 4677 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:07	MDW 18:25	40%	24%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON