Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1627 Delta	DTW 08:47	MEM 09:46	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1230 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	MEM 21:01	9%	3%	0.5%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 12m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 49m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	6h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 11:29 → MSP 12:18DL 1746	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700	6h 05m	99%	89%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:19AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681	5h 44m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON