Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 08:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	MSY 10:14	7%	2%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 20m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	7h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	6h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224	6h 34m	98%	87%
American Details →	DTW 05:55 → PHL 07:45AA 5414 · flown by PSA	1h 24m Philadelphia	PHL 09:09 → MSY 11:16AA 2354	6h 21m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678	7h 09m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 18:56 → ORD 19:14UA 426	57m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → MSY 22:46UA 1761	4h 50m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON