Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3440 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:37 → ORD 06:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4673 DTW 16:26 → ORD 16:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:37	ORD 06:02	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:45	ORD 07:30	16%	4%	1.7%	80%
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:33	ORD 07:51	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 10:09	ORD 10:30	18%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:26	ORD 07:53	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2771 United	DTW 10:38	ORD 10:46	18%	7%	1.0%	no record
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:40	ORD 13:07	20%	7%	2.0%	no record
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	20%	9%	1.4%	78%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:05	ORD 13:41	20%	7%	1.8%	91%worse than usual
AA 4013 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 08:30	ORD 09:11	20%	6%	2.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:34	ORD 11:04	21%	7%	1.9%	86%
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	22%	11%	1.4%	71%
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:48	ORD 21:10	23%	7%	2.9%	no record
UA 1503 United	DTW 09:01	ORD 09:21	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	28%	10%	1.5%	76%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	28%	10%	1.4%	66%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:03	ORD 16:25	29%	8%	2.9%	81%worse than usual
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 18:56	ORD 19:14	30%	9%	0.8%	70%
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:26	ORD 16:57	30%	14%	4.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON