Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:54	PDX 10:36	9%	2%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 11:29 → MSP 12:18DL 1746	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 06m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	9h 04m	99%	89%
United Details →	DTW 09:03 → DEN 10:24UA 2302	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661	6h 39m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551	10h 59m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → PDX 22:00DL 3913 · flown by SkyWest	8h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:58DL 691	9h 59m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	47m Chicago	ORD 08:17 → PDX 11:09AA 1713	7h 24m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON