Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2968 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2968 DTW 07:05 → PHL 08:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1391 DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 05:55	PHL 07:45	5%	3%	1.6%	100%
YX 4392 Republic	DTW 13:04	PHL 14:57	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	PHL 11:46	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 11:40	PHL 13:25	9%	4%	1.7%	82%
DL 2402 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	PHL 23:16	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
OH 5367 PSA	DTW 18:16	PHL 20:11	12%	6%	2.0%	no record
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	PHL 19:25	16%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	18%	5%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON