Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1427 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1427 DTW 07:05 → RDU 08:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2640 DTW 18:47 → RDU 20:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	RDU 08:48	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	RDU 11:57	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	12%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:02	RDU 17:47	12%	4%	0.7%	84%
F9 2640 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:47	RDU 20:44	15%	8%	1.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON