Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5240 DTW 07:53 → ROC 09:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 1418 DTW 21:36 → ROC 22:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5240 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 07:53	ROC 09:14	5%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 5100 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 10:24	ROC 11:45	6%	2%	0.7%	77%
DL 5211 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:45	ROC 16:06	7%	2%	0.7%	72%
DL 1418 Delta	DTW 21:36	ROC 22:55	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON