Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 761 DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 369 DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 761 Delta	DTW 12:34	SAN 14:26	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	13%	2%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	47m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	88%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 43m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210	6h 36m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON