Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 732 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 732 DTW 05:50 → SEA 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 313 DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 732 Delta Flight history →	DTW 05:50	SEA 07:43	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
AS 344 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 07:01	SEA 09:00	12%	2%	0.6%	71%
DL 734 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	SEA 10:34	13%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 728 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:29	SEA 14:29	13%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 565 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:34	SEA 22:33	14%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 944 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:46	SEA 18:42	15%	3%	0.7%	72%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 17:31	SEA 19:33	15%	4%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 00m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	6h 52m	88%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	7h 08m	93%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON