Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 06:53 → SFO 08:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest UA 1118 DTW 19:33 → SFO 21:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 06:53	SFO 08:52	12%	3%	0.6%	61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	SFO 10:27	13%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	13%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:17	SFO 18:14	14%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 335 Delta	DTW 19:53	SFO 21:56	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1118 United	DTW 19:33	SFO 21:35	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	6h 52m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59DL 2762	7h 19m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON