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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 09:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1857 Delta Flight history → DTW 09:25 SNA 11:05 11% 3% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:03 → DEN 10:24UA 2302 3h 01m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 54m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 26m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:38 → SNA 14:50AA 2465 9h 52m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 3h 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 9h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 7h 20m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:44 → DFW 13:36AA 3101 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:10 → SNA 17:33AA 3223 8h 49m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 14m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DTW 08:30 → ORD 09:11AA 4013 · flown by Envoy 2h 45m Chicago ORD 11:56 → SNA 14:27AA 1916 8h 57m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON