Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 16:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:02	XNA 17:18	8%	2%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 08:39 → XNA 09:30DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 13m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → XNA 00:01 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	99%	90%
American Details →	DTW 08:26 → ORD 09:07AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → XNA 13:22AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	100%	89%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:27 → XNA 13:50AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	98%	89%
United Details →	DTW 09:04 → DEN 10:25UA 2302	3h 05m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	8h 21m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:07DL 1467	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:17 → XNA 22:09DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:33DL 1710	6h 34m	100%	88%
American Details →	DTW 11:44 → DFW 13:36AA 3101	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:40 → XNA 18:07AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON