Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3114 ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2823 ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3114 Delta Flight history →	ECP 06:00	ATL 08:13	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1674 Delta Flight history →	ECP 07:50	ATL 10:00	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ECP 09:12	ATL 11:20	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ECP 11:38	ATL 13:51	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ECP 17:03	ATL 19:21	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ECP 14:47	ATL 17:00	10%	3%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON