Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 4789 at 13:17, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4789 Republic	ECP 13:17	DCA 16:54	10%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	58m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	3h 57m	95%	85%
American Details →	ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 44m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	5h 59m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	ECP 09:06 → DAL 11:06WN 312	2h 55m Dallas	DAL 14:01 → DCA 18:03WN 172	7h 57m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	7h 01m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON