Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4120 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4120 ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2052 ECP 18:50 → DFW 20:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4120 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 07:27	DFW 09:37	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 12:05	DFW 14:15	10%	3%	1.2%	73%
AA 2052 American	ECP 18:50	DFW 20:59	17%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON