Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4776 ECP 06:14 → IAH 08:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4352 ECP 14:43 → IAH 16:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4776 SkyWest	ECP 06:14	IAH 08:11	7%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 4851 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 11:39	IAH 13:37	11%	2%	1.0%	83%
UA 4352 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 14:43	IAH 16:42	13%	2%	1.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON