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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 7h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 6h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 37m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 5h 11m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → LGA 15:29AA 2922 7h 02m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → ECP 14:43 → IAH 16:42UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 46m Houston IAH 18:28 → LGA 23:07UA 2682 7h 24m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:05 → DFW 14:15AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513 8h 24m 99% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON