tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3497 Republic ECP 14:09 ORD 16:56 12% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 50m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 6h 24m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:05 → DFW 14:15AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:46 → ORD 19:35AA 1290 7h 30m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:32 → ORD 14:03AA 1285 6h 36m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 34m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:39 → IAH 13:37UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 33m Houston IAH 17:10 → ORD 19:54UA 2786 8h 15m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 19:38 → ORD 20:54DL 1139 6h 07m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON