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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 14m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 24m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 56m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 4h 50m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 5h 33m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 5h 34m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → PHL 16:37AA 3147 8h 10m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:05 → DFW 14:15AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:11 → PHL 20:47AA 1945 7h 42m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON