Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3144 at 15:42, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3144 Southwest	ECP 15:42	STL 17:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 50m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 17m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543	6h 55m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	ECP 09:06 → DAL 11:06WN 312	3h 38m Dallas	DAL 14:44 → STL 16:32WN 986	7h 26m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833	5h 19m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 15m	99%	84%
United Details →	ECP 14:43 → IAH 16:42UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 25m Houston	IAH 20:07 → STL 22:16UA 1528	7h 33m	98%	80%
American Details →	ECP 07:27 → DFW 09:37AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:43 → STL 14:40AA 1363	7h 13m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON