Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4085 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4085 ELP 07:19 → DAL 10:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 712 ELP 17:41 → DAL 20:23 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4085 Southwest	ELP 07:19	DAL 10:04	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1522 Southwest	ELP 09:24	DAL 12:09	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1540 Southwest	ELP 11:04	DAL 13:49	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1226 Southwest	ELP 13:24	DAL 16:09	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 712 Southwest	ELP 17:41	DAL 20:23	17%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON