Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1743 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1743 ELP 06:26 → DEN 08:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4418 ELP 18:59 → DEN 21:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1743 Southwest	ELP 06:26	DEN 08:11	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 1744 Southwest	ELP 15:18	DEN 17:01	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	12%	4%	0.5%	79%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 18:59	DEN 21:00	14%	5%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON