Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4582 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 4582 ELP 05:56 → LAS 06:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2136 ELP 17:24 → LAS 18:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4582 Southwest	ELP 05:56	LAS 06:48	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
F9 3449 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 20:14	LAS 21:08	11%	6%	0.8%	74%
WN 2136 Southwest	ELP 17:24	LAS 18:14	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON