Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4910 ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1752 ELP 15:14 → LAX 16:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4910 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:14	3%	3%	0.7%	96%
OO 4973 SkyWest	ELP 12:00	LAX 13:16	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6361 SkyWest	ELP 18:10	LAX 19:24	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1752 Southwest	ELP 15:14	LAX 16:20	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON