Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1755 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1755 ELP 06:56 → PHX 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1100 ELP 18:31 → PHX 18:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1755 Southwest	ELP 06:56	PHX 07:20	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5008 SkyWest	ELP 06:15	PHX 06:50	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1756 Southwest	ELP 12:04	PHX 12:28	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 4889 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 12:12	PHX 12:45	9%	5%	0.6%	93%
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:31	PHX 16:03	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	ELP 18:31	PHX 18:56	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON