Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1580 at 06:49, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1580 Southwest	ELP 06:49	SAN 07:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 14m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	8h 36m	99%	83%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	97%	81%
American Details →	ELP 12:12 → PHX 12:45AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Phoenix	PHX 14:12 → SAN 15:36AA 1951	4h 24m	95%	79%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 14m	98%	78%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:13 → SAN 14:24AA 1769	8h 19m	97%	77%
Frontier Details →	ELP 18:59 → DEN 21:00F9 4418	1h 26m Denver	DEN 22:26 → SAN 00:02 +1F9 2711	6h 03m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON