tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4547 Southwest ELP 09:54 SAT 12:28 5% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 3245 Southwest ELP 17:42 SAT 20:16 14% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 31m Houston IAH 14:38 → SAT 15:42UA 2030 6h 42m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 09:29 → SAT 14:33AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest 7h 32m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:33 → SAT 14:51AA 791 6h 46m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42UA 2198 5h 42m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 52m Houston IAH 09:38 → SAT 10:54UA 1371 4h 09m 87% 79%
UnitedDetails → ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa 3h 02m Houston IAH 18:42 → SAT 19:50UA 1477 6h 15m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:59 → DFW 12:54AA 1365 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → SAT 15:53AA 1961 4h 54m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 4h 13m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON