tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 3260 at 17:41, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3260 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → EUG 17:41 BUR 19:56 15% 7% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 5h 05m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon 1h 10m Portland PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559 4h 18m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:56 → SFO 07:44UA 335 49m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 01m 89% 81%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m Seattle SEA 08:26 → BUR 10:51AS 1389 4h 51m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 3h 03m Seattle SEA 13:56 → BUR 16:23AS 529 6h 38m 100% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON