Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1762 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1762 EUG 06:44 → DEN 10:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1063 EUG 13:49 → DEN 17:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1762 Southwest	EUG 06:44	DEN 10:16	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1241 United Flight history →	EUG 05:00	DEN 08:37	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1220 United	EUG 12:45	DEN 16:17	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1063 Southwest	EUG 13:49	DEN 17:20	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON