Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1187 at 11:19, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1187 Southwest	EUG 11:19	LAS 13:19	7%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 45m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 24m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662	6h 57m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:19 → PDX 06:20AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Portland	PDX 09:02 → LAS 11:12AS 1403	5h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	6h 01m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	5h 25m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 11:05 → LAS 13:42DL 2880	7h 27m	99%	81%
United Details →	EUG 05:56 → SFO 07:44UA 335	53m San Francisco	SFO 08:37 → LAS 10:32UA 1627	4h 36m	90%	81%
Alaska Details →	EUG 15:55 → PDX 16:56AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	54m Portland	PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531	4h 17m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON