Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 335 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 335 EUG 05:56 → SFO 07:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 4734 EUG 11:31 → SFO 13:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 335 United Flight history →	EUG 05:56	SFO 07:44	4%	3%	0.6%	95%
OO 5503 SkyWest	EUG 15:58	SFO 17:37	19%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 4734 SkyWest	EUG 11:31	SFO 13:34	22%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON