Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3148 at 15:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3148 Southwest	EUG 15:00	SJC 16:36	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	90%	82%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 10:54 → SJC 12:59AS 658	6h 59m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon	53m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon	3h 32m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → SJC 15:43AS 657	5h 58m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON