Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1767 at 05:44, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1767 Southwest	EUG 05:44	SMF 07:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 01m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	99%	91%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	3h 25m Portland	PDX 09:31 → SMF 10:52AS 1709	5h 32m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	94%	86%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:25AS 1500	3h 25m	93%	85%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 10:28 → SMF 12:06AS 763	6h 06m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 12:28 → SMF 14:20AS 288	4h 35m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON