Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 14:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	2h 10m Denver	DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280	12h 17m	96%	80%
United Details →	EWR 13:00 → ORD 14:43UA 2053	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	10h 54m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	EWR 09:10 → SEA 11:51AS 373	2h 43m Seattle	SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436	12h 11m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	10h 00m	87%	73%
Alaska Details →	EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434	11h 33m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON