Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2353 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2353 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1157 EWR 22:29 → ATL 00:52 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	6%	3%	1.1%	85%
UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:20	7%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	9%	3%	1.1%	87%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	11%	4%	1.1%	84%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	13%	5%	1.1%	81%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	14%	4%	1.1%	82%
UA 1746 United	EWR 11:28	ATL 13:57	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 08:45	ATL 11:08	15%	5%	1.0%	78%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	18%	7%	1.2%	80%
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:37	ATL 14:01	19%	7%	1.7%	75%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	23%	9%	1.2%	70%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:57	ATL 18:41	24%	11%	1.0%	76%
UA 2304 United Flight history →	EWR 16:32	ATL 18:49	27%	10%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	ATL 19:33	27%	13%	1.1%	72%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 19:03	ATL 21:20	29%	12%	1.2%	75%
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	32%	13%	1.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON