Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2110 at 06:48 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2110 EWR 06:48 → AUS 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1032 EWR 19:06 → AUS 22:07 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2110 United Flight history →	EWR 06:48	AUS 09:27	6%	2%	1.0%	96%
UA 1238 United	EWR 09:23	AUS 12:05	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	20%	9%	0.9%	78%
UA 2213 United	EWR 17:29	AUS 20:28	25%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 1409 United	EWR 20:51	AUS 23:52	26%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 1032 United	EWR 19:06	AUS 22:07	27%	11%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON