Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G7 4389 at 15:06, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G7 4389 GoJet	EWR 15:06	AVL 17:15	16%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08DL 3059	5h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 07m	99%	87%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 08:17 → AVL 11:16AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	6h 49m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:28 → AVL 21:38DL 3116	6h 17m	96%	81%
American Details →	EWR 13:35 → CLT 15:26AA 1697	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 19:26 → AVL 20:20AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	6h 45m	100%	79%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 12:09 → AVL 13:03AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	5h 33m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON