Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1428 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 07:00 → BNA 08:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 695 EWR 15:12 → BNA 16:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	BNA 08:24	8%	3%	1.1%	89%
UA 2776 United	EWR 10:49	BNA 12:21	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:45	BNA 21:39	20%	7%	2.1%	no record
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	21%	9%	1.1%	67%
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 13:11	BNA 14:21	22%	8%	1.2%	72%
UA 695 United	EWR 15:12	BNA 16:37	24%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON