tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 47m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 23m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → BWI 14:11AA 2733 6h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 3h 22m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 6h 46m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 6h 44m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:32 → ORD 07:59AA 3027 2h 14m Chicago ORD 10:13 → BWI 13:25AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 53m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 6h 41m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON