Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 297 United Flight history →	EWR 07:39	BZN 10:26	9%	3%	0.9%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946	8h 15m	98%	90%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758	3h 27m Denver	DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513	9h 35m	100%	90%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212	12h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	9h 11m	98%	89%
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	2h 27m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	8h 34m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	8h 24m	89%	81%
American Details →	EWR 08:00 → DFW 10:51AA 1303	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947	9h 40m	95%	81%
American Details →	EWR 06:32 → ORD 07:59AA 3027	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:57AA 1080	8h 25m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON