Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 4419 at 15:13, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4419 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 15:13	CHA 17:08	15%	4%	1.0%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	6h 22m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → CHA 15:20DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	6h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → CHA 20:33DL 1722	7h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:48DL 1059	7h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:47 → CHA 17:45DL 3124	7h 14m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → CHA 18:46DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:53 → CHA 14:36DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	4h 41m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON