Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1168 EWR 19:19 → CLT 21:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	5%	3%	1.2%	94%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:02	CLT 08:54	8%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	10%	3%	1.2%	85%
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	13%	3%	1.3%	84%
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 10:25	CLT 12:17	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
YX 3547 Republic	EWR 13:10	CLT 15:23	14%	6%	1.7%	no record
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	16%	6%	2.0%	81%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:35	CLT 15:26	20%	7%	1.3%	84%
AA 2415 American	EWR 17:33	CLT 19:31	28%	13%	1.4%	no record
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:19	CLT 21:23	33%	14%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON