Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1758 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1758 EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 407 EWR 18:49 → DEN 21:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1758 United Flight history →	EWR 07:52	DEN 10:12	8%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 8112 United	EWR 12:00	DEN 14:22	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2455 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	DEN 12:18	10%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 2444 United	EWR 14:44	DEN 17:01	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2120 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	DEN 16:58	15%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	EWR 21:08	DEN 23:16	16%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1792 United Flight history →	EWR 20:59	DEN 23:26	19%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 1729 United	EWR 15:38	DEN 17:45	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 407 United Flight history →	EWR 18:49	DEN 21:18	20%	5%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 08:30 → CLE 10:08UA 1833	1h 02m Cleveland	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	5h 56m	94%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	59m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	5h 50m	93%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON