Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2728 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2728 EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:11 → DFW 20:52 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	7%	3%	1.6%	95%
UA 1494 United Flight history →	EWR 07:07	DFW 09:35	11%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	12%	6%	1.3%	85%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:35	DFW 15:14	16%	8%	1.3%	75%
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:10	DFW 15:57	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	20%	8%	1.5%	74%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:33	DFW 18:31	22%	9%	1.1%	71%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	28%	14%	2.0%	47%
UA 1277 United	EWR 20:37	DFW 22:56	35%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:11	DFW 20:52	36%	16%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON