Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2596 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2596 EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2567 EWR 20:25 → DTW 22:38 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2596 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	DTW 07:50	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 3700 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:44	DTW 10:47	4%	2%	0.7%	88%
YX 3633 Republic	EWR 10:15	DTW 12:12	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	EWR 09:55	DTW 11:43	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 3437 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:07	DTW 16:07	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DTW 14:58	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 3412 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:22	DTW 23:31	9%	3%	0.9%	75%
YX 3475 Republic	EWR 18:46	DTW 20:58	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:50	DTW 18:51	15%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 8163 United	EWR 16:30	DTW 18:18	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	EWR 20:25	DTW 22:38	20%	6%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON