Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1505 EWR 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 435 EWR 19:40 → FLL 22:52 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	7%	3%	1.7%	82%
UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	FLL 10:05	9%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 2151 United	EWR 08:52	FLL 12:02	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 2759 United	EWR 11:58	FLL 15:14	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:05	FLL 16:15	19%	6%	1.2%	81%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	19%	5%	1.7%	72%
UA 1998 United	EWR 10:13	FLL 13:06	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	28%	11%	1.8%	42%
UA 2096 United	EWR 17:58	FLL 21:08	29%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 435 United	EWR 19:40	FLL 22:52	30%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON