Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4591 EWR 00:00 → GSO 01:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4509 EWR 12:15 → GSO 14:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4591 GoJet	EWR 00:00	GSO 01:29	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:31	GSO 18:27	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 4509 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 12:15	GSO 14:11	10%	2%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON