Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 3604 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3604 EWR 08:30 → GSP 10:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest YX 3572 EWR 20:57 → GSP 22:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	12%	3%	2.0%	84%
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:59	GSP 19:08	19%	6%	3.0%	86%
YX 3572 Republic	EWR 20:57	GSP 22:59	30%	8%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON